The quest to power African agricultural growth in the next decade is driven by innovations, commercialization and youth empowerment; all of which are underpinned by megatrends in Agricultural Research for Development (AR4D) in Africa. (more…)
Dr. Abdulrazak Ibrahim
Capacity Development Specialist, FARA
Over the next 30 years, African workforce will grow by 800 million people, supporting a population that is projected to reach 2.5 billion in 2050. However, in 20 out of these 30 years, most of Africa’s population will remain rural despite rapid urbanization in many countries. This demographic shift fixes a spotlight on the need for preparedness for the changing nature of work as old jobs give way to new ones, due to the susceptibility of the manufacturing sector to automation.
However, these anticipated job losses are not likely to happen in Africa, despite expanding population and its youthful nature on the continent. According to a report published by the World Bank, automation due to the digital revolution not only offers an opportunity to transform the nature of work for all Africans, but that the disruptive waves arising from this revolution would positively impact African economic sectors including agriculture.
The report specifically identified low levels of technology adoption, small manufacturing base as well as low demand for a range of products as drivers for structural transformation that would in fact create jobs rather than reduce them. In particular, digital revolution would lead to price reductions in technology adoption, which would help firms grow; create more jobs for all; and produce more affordable products. In addition, limited education in Africa consigns most of the workforce to the informal sector thus technologies designed to meet productive needs would potentially support Africans to learn more and earn more.
The catch however, is that production takes place in Africa. Within the agricultural research for development (AR4D) landscape, this would mean strengthening agricultural value chain systems by establishing technology and knowledge infrastructure that supports the delivery of technologies and knowledge products to the last mile.
Because the manufacturing sector is still weak in Africa, the dichotomy between the so-called old and new sectors leaves a huge gap that can potentially catalyse innovations and stimulate growth in agriculture. Bridging those gaps would be driven by a set of competencies and skills required to provide trans-disciplinary and strategic human capital formation, to achieve targeted skill-sets and drive holistic value chain development of economic crops and livestock.
In this respect, the Agri-competency system, developed by the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA), represents a strategic tool to harness the gains of digital revolution by supporting the crafting and implementation of appropriate policies to support the so called Africa’s “three C’s: competition, capital and capacity, which are the core of the agri-competency systems.
A starting point is supporting the strengthening of Africa Centres of Excellence in the areas of Foresight, Science Technology & Innovation (STI) and Agripreneurship aligned to specific value chains, to enhance human capital formation. In addition, it will support equitable distribution of livelihood that allows for social protection of vulnerable groups in the agricultural workforce.
Abdulrazak Ibrahim (PhD), is an Agricultural Biotechnologist. In FARA, Dr. Ibrahim is part of the Capacity Development & Agriprenuership Research Cluster, where he coordinates Agricultural Research and Innovation Fellowship for Africa (ARIFA) and supports capacity development activities around technology scaling, sanitary and phyto-sanitary frameworks, biotechnology, emerging technologies and foresight among others
The call by the government of President Buhari to halt the release of Forex for the importation of food items to Nigeria sounds like a very radical approach to agricultural development. It is an hydra-headed issue with implications for various social, cultural and economic variables at micro and macro levels.
The structural ban will appeal to the common man enthused about growth in agricultural production; based on the speculation that such will create market for the locally produced food items and enhance the livelihood of the farmers. This will be true for commodities that are produced in large quantities and are subject to market glut at certain times of the year, for example, cassava. It will also open the local market for commodities like wheat that consumes huge forex simply because the production in the country is not competitive in terms of price and quality. Largely, the initial response of the food market may be that of increase in price following structural shortage; such shortage will be short lived as it will trigger response from new entrants into farming and could be cover over two to three cropping seasons. The conventional response in large economies like Nigeria is a dietary shift to alternative sources of food that are available in relative abundance. I envisage a bigger market for commodities like sorghum and millet, sweet potato, Hungary rice and cocoyam etc. The livestock industry will certainly experience a huge shock as key commodities that service livestock feed industry (Maize and soybean) will experience shortage in the short run pushing up the price of poultry products. The natural response will be an increase in production of these commodities locally to meet the shortage.
The horizon for this policy ordinarily looks good, save the response of the civil society, which is often an evasive and highly unpredictable variable. The likely response is a social crisis and cries from hunger pangs following the short run consequences. At this point the resolve of the policy makers to make a change by insistence will determine the ultimate success of this drastic policy. It thus behooves the policy system to have made good preparation before enacting this drastic policy. One action issue is to ensure that the strategic grain reserve is functioning at optimum level; the granaries should be revamped to act as government own release point to lower the imminent hike in grain price by the forces of demand and supply. The reserve system should also be well funded to buy over grains at a competitive price from farmers at harvest, good thoughts should be given to the issues of livelihood compliant price for commodities to prevent unbearable pricing. A second action that should precede the enactment of this policy is a seamless input market for commercial farming. Efforts in this direction should include affordable fertilizers, agrochemicals and small machineries. The efforts of the state government should go towards the establishment of farm estates; such estates should be driven by the private sector and only moderated by the public sector actor. Allocation of lands should not be politicized whatsoever. A smart and holistic approach that embraces the value chain should be used. Largely, incentives should be made available for establishment of agro-based industries by the citizens; a cautious approach that ensures real values are generated and retained within the country is imperative.
On the global scene, the government monetary systems need to reflect on the trade balance issues with countries that Nigeria trade with on importation of food items. What will be trade off effects of abrupt stoppage of wheat importation from the West on their propensity to buy Nigeria petroleum? Adequate preparations need to be made for this shock.
Certainly, every external change will trigger the development of a new equilibrium. Best wishes to Nigeria in its endeavor to take the bull by the horn in the crave for food sovereignty.
An opinion piece by Wole Fatunbi (PhD)
Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa